The 42% Trap: Why the CLARITY Act’s Prediction Market Probability Screams Mispricing
A single data point on Polymarket pins the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage at 42%....
Policy
•
CobieWhale
•
2026-07-22
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$65,915.4 | -0.61% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$1,929.05 | +0.24% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$77.75 | -0.35% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$571 | -0.45% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.14 | -0.74% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0727 | -1.09% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.1744 | +0.46% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$6.64 | +1.24% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$0.8400 | -1.48% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$8.62 | -0.14% |
Fear & Greed
33
Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202608
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Tag Cloud
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$65,915.4
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,929.05
1
Solana
SOL
$77.75
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$571
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.14
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0727
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1744
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.64
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.8400
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.62
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x4d5c...71d6
30m ago
In
4,134.49 BTC
🔴
0x5f5e...b249
6h ago
Out
3,504,967 USDC
🔵
0xf1b4...ac82
12m ago
Stake
104 ETH
💡 Smart Money
0xd32d...20fa
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$1.7M
71%
0x9d8b...1258
Market Maker
-$1.4M
72%
0x7702...c07f
Early Investor
+$0.1M
60%
#legislative arbitrage
legislative arbitrage related articles